将Jeff Bezos送到空间边缘的风险程度如何?

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Blue Origin Noter Jeff Bezos和Virgin Galactic创始人Richard Branson一直在过去的20年里工作,以获得建造和推出的公司的火箭。贝佐斯于周一宣布,他将在7月20日爆炸蓝色起源的新谢泼德火箭,骑到地球大气的极限。与此同时,布兰森预计将在今年夏天飞行在初榨银河上的统一火箭飞机上的同一个区域。

Bezos和Branson之间的Rich Guy Space Race可能会说服其他良好的空间游客,他们想要保证火箭骑既有趣和安全。Blue Origin的航班将与人类乘客首次发射;以前的航班只携带了一个人体模型。

Blue Origin Noter Jeff Bezos和Virgin Galactic创始人Richard Branson一直在过去的20年里工作,以获得建造和推出的公司的火箭。现在都准备适合自己的宇宙飞船。贝佐斯于周一宣布,他将在7月20日爆炸蓝色起源的新谢泼德火箭,骑到地球大气的极限。与此同时,布兰森预计将在今年夏天飞行在初榨银河上的统一火箭飞机上的同一个区域。

Bezos和Branson之间的Rich Guy Space Race(Spacex的Elon Musk是现在奇怪的人)可能会说服其他良好的空间游客,他们想要保证火箭骑既有趣和安全。但专家们注意,即使航天器经历了多年的测试,太空旅行始终有风险。 Blue Origin的航班将与人类乘客首次发射;以前的航班只携带了一个人体模型。对于处女的银河,这将只是火箭飞机携带的第二次。

“当你飞行人类时,它总是一个阶段比飞行未揉的任务,这是因为你有六个人的生活,你必须担心,”亚特兰大的太空行业顾问劳拉福斯茨克说谁在零G研究航班上用NASA飞了几次。 “蓝色起源没有理由害怕有些东西会出错,但你永远不会知道。空间是一个危险的业务。“

Blue Origin的飞行飞往空间所谓的颠覆 - 只持续大约10到15分钟,只需足够的时间达到高度,以允许贝塞斯,他的兄弟标记和四名乘客漂浮在失重中。 (其他人将包括蓝色原产地员工和在线拍卖的获胜者目前占地380万美元,星期六结束。)然后胶囊将在西德克萨斯州沙漠的三个降落伞和土地下返回地球。

Blue Origin的新谢泼德胶囊是100%的自动化。没有飞行员,乘客无法操纵或调整课程。乘客必须完成的唯一任务是卸下,然后撤回他们的安全带,所以他们可以通过胶囊的巨大窗户漂浮并观察地球。

蓝色原产地发言人拒绝回答有关培训的有线的问题,贝佐兄弟将在其航班之前收到,以及胶囊的控制和导航如何指向他们网站上的一页,这些网站Shepard已经成功了15架成功的航班,其中包括其胶囊中止系统的三个测试,以便在发射板上出现问题或在高处时出现问题时,它将脱离火箭。

维珍银河的VSS Unity更像是一个带翅膀的火箭飞机。由叫做White-KnknightTwo的专门制造的双机身飞机,抛光镀铬六座六座在海拔大约5万英尺。火箭飞机从飞机下方释放,然后向其发动机供电60秒钟,以爆炸到空间的50英里高边缘,在那里漂流几分钟的快乐。一旦达到最高点,车辆的后半部分向上折叠,这会产生高阻,空气动力学稳定的布局,使工艺像羽毛球羽毛球一样漂浮。增加的阻力使工艺的速度降低,而折叠的形状可确保工艺保持适当的姿态。然后,在减慢并达到较低的海拔之后,翼折叠起来。在维尔京的新墨西哥州Spaceport,宇宙飞船在跑道上返回其原始位置并像飞机一样落在跑道上。整个旅程始终从开始完成后大约90分钟,船上没有浴室。

维珍银河对今年的人类航班的道路经历了一些致命的挫折。 Unity是公司的第二个SpaceShipTWO航天飞机。 2007年,三名级别复合材料,一家建造处女的公司,在莫哈韦沙漠设施在Spaceshiptwo的火箭发动机的早期测试期间丧生。缩放复合材料是由布兰森提供的。

2014年,后来版本的Spaceshiptwo在Midair中分开了分开,杀死了一份副驾驶,在测试期间严重伤害了飞行员。联邦事故调查人员发现了设计保障,LAX监管监督,以及缺乏最近飞行经验的潜在焦虑的共同体验,作为崩溃的重要因素。当时,维尔京官员表示,他们对系统进行了变化,以便根据联邦调查,通过飞行员过早地释放机翼地位。

尽管有这些事件,处女的银河尚未放弃,并在5月底,使其最近和成功的VSS团结飞行。统一,最新版本的SpaceshipTWO已被修改以提高安全措施,包括驾驶室加压系统,如果在旅行的任何部分应该发生某些事情,那么将维持生命支持。据Aleanna Crane副总裁兼原始银河通信副总裁的说法,航天器还包括船员和乘客的逃生系统。

刚刚在升降机之前,布兰森和其他乘客将在圣母新墨西哥州Spaceport进行三天的培训,以熟悉飞行和审查程序,加工。

处女在规划下一个计划之前,从5月22日航班分析数据,这需要FAA许可证。这意味着它仍然尚不清楚Branson是否会在Bezos计划7月20日游览之前到达空间。 “我们将在夏天有三个额外的考试飞行,其中两个是其中两个,”起重机从伦敦说。 “其中一个将有理查德船上。”

第三次测试航班将包括意大利空军的三名成员进行研究任务。

美国宇航局宇航员表示,在短片上空飞行与国际空间站的旅行不同。 NASA车辆喜欢现在退休的航天飞机或新的Spacex船员龙依赖于几枚助推器火箭,以使它们进入轨道,以及讲火箭的复杂生活支持,推进,导航和航空电子系统。其中一些系统是自动化的;其他人需要训练有素的飞行员,例如在与ISS对接期间。相比之下,这两个新的商业宇宙飞船在设计和运营中更简单,根据美国宇航局的宇航员,驾驶第一个船长龙宇宙飞机到2020年5月,与同事Bob Behnken一起。

“这一切都不容易,”Hurley说是人的空间。 “我们问了很多车辆,无论是副岩体还是轨道飞行,都会安全地带回乘员和船员。但是,当然,任何真正了解这项业务的人都很亲密地了解,让车辆进入轨道之间存在巨大差异,并让车辆进行次弓飞行。“

Hurley,谁也飞了两个航天飞机任务,说减少风险的方法是通过设备测试和船员培训。虽然在过去的10年里,私人空间公司没有像美国宇航局一样多的人,但他们已经通过严格的测试计划汇总了他们的航天器。 Hurley去年在升水之前让Elon Musk留在他身上,以便于他的任何疑虑。 “他说,”我们已经完成了我们可能的一切,“赫利召回。 “我们已经回过了数据,我们已经询问了每个人的众多次,即使是SpaceX的实习生,如果我们应该看到其他任何东西 - 如果我们在让这些家伙放弃之前我们需要做任何其他事情这辆车。'“

船员龙和航天飞机之间的巨大区别是较新的航天器有一个逃生系统,在发射板上和起飞期间。如果出现问题,那里有时间没有机会生存,如果出现问题,就像在1986年在重新入境期间的升降机和2003年哥伦比亚分手之后的1986年的挑战者爆炸中一样。 “我比船员更安全,而不是穿梭,”Hurley说。 “没有问题。”

曾为Spacex工作船长龙胶囊的前班车宇航员说,原始的银河和蓝色原始航天器可能具有安全优势。 “一旦发动机灯,就没有任何人,”雷斯曼说了新的谢泼德火箭。 “整个方式都是自动驾驶仪。他们只是在看,软件正在做一切。“

“他们的生命支持非常简单,只有在大约10分钟内工作,”雷斯坦继续。与航天站的更长持续时间使命不同,这两个商业副岩体航天器“没有二氧化碳擦洗设备或任何用于回收废水并将其转化为饮用水”,“他补充道。 “没有厕所担心。没有太空服,你不必担心它将如何与车辆界面。“

更少的系统意味着较少的事情出错,同意赫利。与此同时,他们都说无法消除太空飞行的风险,即使是冗余的技术系统,测试和船员训练也是如此。赫利指出,一旦太空飞行变得更加例行,那就是事情会出错的时候。 “当你在第一次飞行时,你让每个人都在寻找你 - 但是你想确保警惕地留在整个方案中,到第十次航班和二十航班,”Hurley说。 “每次飞行都很重要,因为每次航班都有人们。”


英文译文:

Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos and Virgin Galactic founder Richard Branson have been working for the past 20 years to get their companies’ rockets built and launched. Now both are preparing to suit up and ride their own spacecraft. Bezos announced on Monday that he’ll blast off July 20 on Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket, riding to the limit of Earth’s atmosphere. Meanwhile, Branson is expected to fly this summer on the Virgin Galactic VSS Unity rocket plane to the same zone.

The rich-guy space race between Bezos and Branson (SpaceX’s Elon Musk is the odd man out for now) may convince other well-heeled space tourists who want assurances that a rocket ride is both fun and safe. But experts note that space travel is always risky, even when spacecraft have undergone years of testing. Blue Origin’s flight will be its first launch with human passengers; previous flights have only carried a mannequin. For Virgin Galactic, it will be only the second time the rocket plane has carried people.

“When you're flying humans, it's always one step more complex than just flying an uncrewed mission, and that’s because you have the lives of six people that you have to worry about,” says Laura Forczyk, an Atlanta-based space industry consultant who has flown several times with NASA on zero-g research flights. “Blue Origin has no reason to fear that something will go wrong, but you never know. Space is a risky business.”

Blue Origin’s flight to the edge of space—known as suborbital—will only last about 10 to 15 minutes, just enough time to reach an altitude to allow Bezos, his brother Mark, and four more passengers to float in weightlessness. (The others will include Blue Origin employees and the winner of an online auction that currently stands at $3.8 million and ends Saturday.) Then the capsule will return to Earth under three parachutes and land in the West Texas desert.

Blue Origin’s New Shepard capsule is 100 percent automated. There’s no pilot and the passengers can’t maneuver or adjust course. The only task that passengers have to accomplish is to unbuckle and then rebuckle their seatbelts, so they can float around and watch the Earth roll by through the capsule’s massive windows.

A Blue Origin spokesperson declined to answer questions from WIRED about the kind of training the Bezos brothers will receive in advance of their flight, and about how control and navigation of the capsule works, instead pointing us to a page on their website that states that New Shepard has made 15 successful flights, including three tests of its capsule abort system that will allow it to detach from the rocket in case something goes wrong on the launchpad or while aloft.

Virgin Galactic’s VSS Unity is more like a rocket plane with wings. The polished-chrome six-seater is carried to about 50,000 feet in altitude by a specially built double-fuselage aircraft called WhiteKnightTwo. The rocket plane is released from underneath the aircraft, and then powers up its engines for 60 seconds to blast to the 50-mile-high edge of space, drifting there for a few minutes of joy. Once it reaches its highest point, the rear half of the vehicle folds upwards, which creates a high-drag, aerodynamically stable layout that allows the craft to float like a badminton shuttlecock. The increased drag keeps the craft’s speed low, while the folded shape ensures the craft maintains the appropriate attitude. Then, after it slows and reaches lower altitude, the wings fold back down. The spacecraft returns to its original position and lands like an airplane on a runway, in this case, at Virgin’s New Mexico spaceport. The whole trip lasts about 90 minutes from start to finish, and there’s no bathroom on board.

Virgin Galactic’s path to this year’s human flights has experienced some fatal setbacks. Unity is the company’s second SpaceShipTwo spaceplane. In 2007, three employees of Scaled Composites, a firm building the craft for Virgin, were killed at a Mojave Desert facility during early testing of SpaceShipTwo’s rocket engines. Scaled Composites was financed by Branson at the time.

In 2014, a later version of SpaceShipTwo broke apart in midair, killing a copilot and seriously injuring the pilot during a test. Federal accident investigators found inadequate design safeguards, lax regulatory oversight, and a potentially anxious copilot lacking recent flight experience as important factors in the crash. At the time, Virgin officials said they were making changes to the system so that the wing position could not be released prematurely by either pilot, an event that led to the crash, according to the federal investigation.

Despite these incidents, Virgin Galactic hasn’t given up, and made its most recent—and successful—crewed flight of VSS Unity in late May. Unity, the latest version of SpaceShipTwo, has been modified to increase safety measures, including a cabin pressurization system that will maintain life support if something should happen during any part of the trip. The spacecraft also includes an escape system for the crew and passengers, according to Aleanna Crane, vice president of communications for Virgin Galactic.

Just prior to liftoff, Branson and the other passengers will undergo three days of training at Virgin’s New Mexico spaceport to familiarize themselves with the flight and review procedures, Crane added.

Virgin is analyzing data from the May 22 flight before planning the next one, which will require an FAA license. That means it’s still not clear whether Branson will get to space before Bezos’ planned July 20 excursion. “We will have three additional test flights, two of them in the summer,” Crane said from London. “One of which will have Richard on board.”

The third test flight will include three members of the Italian Air Force for a research mission.

NASA astronauts say that flying on a short suborbital trip is not the same as traveling to the International Space Station. NASA vehicles like the now-retired Space Shuttle or the new SpaceX Crew Dragon depend on several booster rockets to get them into orbit, as well as complex life support, propulsion, navigation, and avionics systems that tell the rocket where to go. Some of these systems are automated; others require a trained pilot, such as during docking with the ISS. In contrast, the two new commercial spacecraft are simpler in design and operation, according to Doug Hurley, a NASA astronaut who piloted the first Crew Dragon spacecraft to the ISS in May, 2020, along with colleague Bob Behnken.

“None of it is easy,” Hurley says of human spaceflight. “We ask a lot of the vehicles, whether it's a suborbital or orbital flight, to bring the occupants and the crews back safely. But, certainly, anybody who really understands this business knows intimately that there is a huge difference between getting the vehicle into orbit, and getting a vehicle to do a suborbital flight.”

Hurley, who also flew two Space Shuttle missions, says the way to reduce risks is through equipment testing and crew training. While the private space companies haven’t flown as many people as NASA has, over the past 10 years they have put their spacecraft through rigorous testing programs. Hurley remembers Elon Musk coming to him before liftoff last year to ease any of his concerns. “He said, ‘We've done everything we possibly could,’” Hurley recalls. “‘We have gone back through the data and the numerous times we've asked everyone, even the interns at SpaceX, if there's anything else that we should look at—if there's anything else that we need to do before we put these guys on this vehicle.’”

The big difference between Crew Dragon and the Space Shuttle is that the newer spacecraft has an escape system that works on the launchpad and during takeoff. There were times where the shuttle crew had no chance for survival if something went wrong, like during the 1986 Challenger explosion just after liftoff and 2003 Columbia breakup during re-entry. “I was much safer on Crew Dragon than the shuttle,” Hurley says. “No question.”

Both the Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin spacecraft might have a safety advantage because of their simplicity, says Garrett Reisman, a former shuttle astronaut who worked for SpaceX to design the Crew Dragon capsule. “Once the engines light, there’s nothing any human does,” Reisman says about the New Shepard rocket. “It’s on autopilot the whole way. They are just watching and the software is doing everything.”

“Their life support is very simple and only has to work for about 10 minutes,” Reisman continues. Unlike a longer-duration mission to the space station, the two commercial suborbital spacecraft “don’t have carbon dioxide scrubbing equipment or anything for recycling wastewater and turning it into drinking water,” he adds. “There’s no toilet to worry about. There’s no spacesuit, and you don’t have to worry about how it will interface with the vehicle.”

Fewer systems mean fewer things to go wrong, agrees Hurley. At the same time, they both say that risks of spaceflight cannot be eliminated, even with redundant technological systems, testing and crew training. And Hurley points out that once spaceflight becomes more routine, that’s when things can go wrong. “You got everybody looking out for you when you're on the first flight—but you want to make sure that that vigilance stays throughout the length of the program, to the tenth flight and the twentieth flight,” Hurley says. “Every flight is important, because every flight has people on it.”


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